Baseball has returned! Let it thaw the icy winter and bring forth the promise of spring and summer. May it pause our fears and captivate our imaginations. If not for the next several weeks, then at least for today. The San Francisco Giants begin their next trip through the 162-game season and in this moment… anything is possible.
This is a feeling that’s shared by their opponent. The Cincinnati Reds haven’t had as transitional an offseason as the Giants, but both fandoms have reason for optimism. The Reds didn’t shake up their front office, but they did have a modest offseason from a transactions standpoint — a trio of trades (for SP Brady Singer, IF Gavin Lux, and LHP Taylor Rogers), and a trio of payroll adds (SP Nick Martinez accepted the qualifying offer, OF Austin Hays, RP Scott Barlow) — kicked off by installing a new manager. Terry Francona has got Reds fans excited about the team’s chances, as the mix of youth and experience is now directed by a surefire Hall of Fame coach.
It’s not quite bringing in Buster Posey to run the team, but it’s certainly of a kind with that. The Giants’ biggest move after that, of course, was signing SS Willy Adames to a franchise-record contract. He’ll matchup against the Reds’ homegrown superstar Elly De La Cruz, who not only posted an .809 OPS last year but stole 67 bases on his way to getting some MVP votes.
Adames received some votes as well, and having most recently been in the NL Central as a Brewer, the Giants’ newest player has amassed a nice track record against the Reds. He’s slashing .269/.326/.521 in 28 games (129 PA) at Great American Ballpark (8 HR, 6 doubles) — overall against the Reds, (57 games), he’s .255/.327/.563 with 19 home runs and 12 doubles.
The Giants-Reds series was a tough one for the Giants prior to 2021, save for the 2012 NLDS, of course. With the home run-ability of the park the biggest issue, this will be a good first test for this edition of the Giants. The team’s success this season ought to be the result of great pitching and sound defense. The forecast suggests that at least one of these games (Sunday’s) might be impacted by rain and let’s hope that it’s only one game.
Neither team is projected to be all that good against the NL playoff field and maybe only interesting to its fans, but you can’t predict baseball, and fans watch not only because it makes great background noise that occasionally grabs your attention, it also creates thrilling storylines of improbable comebacks and even harder to fathom streaks of dominance. Both teams have a great number of homegrown players on their 40-man rosters — with the Giants edging out the Reds 20-18 in that category, believe it or not — and they’re counting on that talent to propel them here in 2025.
The Giants have a 21-6 Spring Training record (+57 run differential!) fueling their optimism, plus Buster Posey guiding the ship, Logan Webb on the bump to start the season, Willy Adames alongside Matt Chapman, the return of Jung Hoo Lee, Justin Verlander in the rotation, and a bunch of power arms in their bullpen (plus Tyler Rogers!). Also: today is Buster Posey’s 38th birthday. Celebrate today with a win? Open the gates and let that excitement sprint onto the track!
Series overview
Who: San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds
Where: Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati, Ohio
When: Thursday, Saturday, Sunday
National broadcasts: None.
Projected starters (2024 Stats)
Thursday: Logan Webb (13-10, 3.47 ERA) vs. Hunter Greene (9-5, 2.75 ERA)
Saturday: Justin Verlander (5-6, 5.48 ERA) vs. Nick Lodolo (9-6, 4.76 ERA)
Sunday: Robbie Ray (3-2, 4.70 ERA) vs. Nick Martinez (10-7, 3.10 ERA)
FanGraphs preseason projected W-L
Reds, 78-84 (5th in NLC), .501 strength of schedule, 20.5% Postseason odds
Giants, 81-81 (4th in NLW), .511 strength of schedule, 28.7% Postseason odds
Reds to watch
Taylor Rogers: The Giants dumped him off to the Reds to save themselves $6 million and now he’s their primary setup man. He had a solid spring for them until his final appearance in the Cactus League (4 earned runs and 0 outs recorded), which ballooned his ERA to 6.43 in 7 innings. The Giants moved on from him because the signing was — in their eyes — a bust nearly as soon as the ink dried. With the Giants featuring an all right-handed bench, his revere platoon split will get an interesting challenge right away. Also, will the telecast feature some b-roll of he and Tyler interacting before the game?
Christian Encarnacion-Strand: Is he the Big Bopper from the Bay who’s here to stay? He had a great spring and is looking to reestablish himself after a wrist injury limited him to just 29 games last season. You may recall that he made his MLB debut in 2023 against the Giants, and in his second game he swatted a mammoth home run.
Matt McLain: After a breakout rookie season in 2023 (.290/.357/.507 in 403 PA), the Reds hopes for competing in 2024 were pinned in part to McLain, but shoulder surgery cost him all of last season. Now he’s back and looking to cause trouble. Will he hit the ground running or will the Giants still find some rust?
Giants to watch
Jung Hoo Lee: The Reds are seeing a lot of their injured players return and that’s given the franchise renewed sense of hope. That’s a similar feeling with the Giants. Jung Hoo Lee might not be a 30-homer threat, but he might be the most important bat in the lineup. Nice to have him back.
Patrick Bailey: I assumed that Elly De La Cruz as a player to watch is a given, but just in case it’s unclear, please do keep your eye on one of the best players in the sport. We know that Patrick Bailey will if he gets on base. Indeed, as nice as it would be for the Giants’ backstop to also hit, his job will be to contain the Reds’ running game as best as possible. Hopefully, Giants pitchers worked on holding runners better, as the Giants were one of the worst teams in the sport in that regard in 2024. His pitch framing will be important, too. Limiting free passes and base traffic could determine the series.
Ryan Walker: Closing on the road is no small feat and the Great American Ballpark is a place where an inning can get away from a starter or a reliever rather quickly. He wrested the closer job away from Camilo Doval and the Giants didn’t think about it again last season once he did. But there’s a different kind of pressure that comes with entering the season with the job. The expectations are even greater.
Prediction time
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