For the second straight season, the West Region features a matchup that would be an upset only in terms of seeding. Last year, No. 11 New Mexico was favored against No. 6 Clemson. This year, it’s No. 12 Colorado State over No. 5 Memphis by 2.5 points as of Monday morning. But that’s not the only game where our upset projection model likes the lower seed’s chances.
Below, you’ll find a game-by-game analysis of every first-round matchup with Bracket Breaker implications in the West. As a reminder, to qualify as a Bracket Breaker game, opponents need to be separated by at least five seeds (which is why we don’t cover the 8 vs. 9 or 7 vs. 10 games). Our analysis adjusts teams’ basic strengths according to how closely they statistically resemble favorites and underdogs from past tournaments and, where appropriate, by style matchups. We can’t tell you how to pick — that depends on how richly your pool rewards deep upsets and your risk tolerance. But if you’re interested in how our model works, check out this story.
You’ll also find links to the other regions as we post them, and stay tuned later in the week for upset odds for every potential second-round matchup.
Odds from BetMGM. For more March Madness coverage, check out all of our bracket advice.
More Bracket Breakers: Men’s Top 10 Upsets | South Region Preview | Women’s Top 10 Upsets
No. 5 Memphis Tigers vs. No. 12 Colorado State Rams
Upset Chance: 42.2 percent
This is our model’s third-likeliest first-round upset, and that might actually be underrating Colorado State’s chances. Why? Slingshot can’t account for Tyrese Hunter’s status. The Memphis guard missed the AAC tournament championship game with a left foot injury, and there’s no telling whether he will be back in time to face the Rams. Betting markets have no such limitations and, as noted, Colorado State is favored.
That’s bad news for Memphis, a team that already has some issues when you look at advanced metrics. The Tigers are ranked just 51st on KenPom.com: That’s below 17-16 Northwestern, which did not qualify for the tournament. Slingshot throws even more cold water on the Tigers’ chances because of their struggles holding onto the ball (19.2 percent turnover rate) and keeping teams off the offensive glass (32.3 percent offensive rebound rate allowed).
Colorado State is actually ranked ahead of Memphis in our model’s basic power rankings. The only reason why its upset chances don’t rise above 50 percent is that the Rams’ style of play doesn’t embrace the high-risk, high-reward strategy usually deployed by successful underdogs. The Rams rank 279th in offensive rebounding and 202nd in forcing turnovers, although they do shoot plenty of 3s (42.8 percent of attempts). And they come in hot — winners of 10 straight — with a true star in Nique Clifford (19 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 4.4 apg).
If all of that doesn’t make enough of a case for Colorado State, chew on this. Slingshot’s inputs are comprised of historical Bracket Breaker games that were statistically similar to a current matchup. Three of the four contests most similar to Memphis/Colorado State ended in upsets: Kansas State vs. Florida Atlantic (2023); Providence vs. Dayton (2015); and Vanderbilt vs. Richmond (2011). Put it all together, and there’s a lot working against Memphis.
No. 6 Missouri Tigers vs. No. 11 Drake Bulldogs
Upset Chance: 33.7 percent
An honest admission: We’re surprised this upset percentage isn’t even higher. We’ve been lauding Drake all season long, and its 58 percent “killer rating” is exceptionally high for our model. As we’ve noted, the Bulldogs do everything you want from an underdog. They force the 10th-highest rate of turnovers in the country (22 percent), rank 17th in offensive rebounding (36 percent), place 24th in defensive rebounding (74.2 percent), and do it all while playing at the nation’s slowest pace. If our model qualified for legal guardian status, it would adopt the Bulldogs.
A less complex version of our model, in fact, actually gives Drake nearly a 62 percent chance of winning this game. But some more advanced math and the similar-games component (only two of the 10 most similar matchups ended in an upset) prevent this from being an auto-pick (we’d still recommend it, though).
The other issue working against Drake is the matchup. Slingshot really likes Missouri as a giant: Our model gives the Tigers a “secret sauce” boost — Slingshot’s statistical adjustment based on similarities to successful killers or safe giants of the past — roughly identical to that of top-seeded Florida. Missouri earns that buffer through possession-building tactics. The Tigers grab offensive rebounds on 33.7 percent of misses and force turnovers on 20 percent of opponents’ possessions. They don’t have a lot of cold shooting nights, ranking 18th in effective field goal percentage, but when they do, they go get the ball back.
Still, Drake will be a handful. This team has winning DNA, dating back to Ben McCollum’s time at Division II Northwest Missouri State, where he won four national titles. Three key Bulldogs — including star Bennett Stirtz — played for him there, and they’ve made the Division I leap look easy, going 30-3. Slingshot has been backing Drake all season, and it’s not going to stop now.
No. 4 Maryland Terrapins vs. No. 13 Grand Canyon Antelopes
Upset Chance: 12.4 percent
Last year, Slingshot grabbed the Antelopes’ antlers and readied for a wild ride, giving Grand Canyon a 30 percent chance of a 12-5 upset against St. Mary’s. The Lopes delivered, winning 75-66.
This year, Slingshot isn’t nearly as bullish, but there’s an asterisk to report. Tyon Grant-Foster, the star of last year’s team, has struggled with injuries this season, playing in only 25 games (and starting only 16). But he returned for the WAC tournament and played 29 minutes in the championship game. If he can play as he did in last year’s tournament, the Lopes are better than their advanced metrics suggest.
Like last season, Grand Canyon pressures the ball on defense, forcing turnovers on 20.6 percent of opponents’ possessions. But this season, they play faster, shoot worse and are less effective on the offensive glass, all of which are problems, according to Slingshot. That’s why the Lopes’ secret sauce is actually a negative number.
Maryland, led by its Crab Five starting lineup, also is a more daunting opponent than St. Mary’s was last year. The Terps feature the nation’s sixth-ranked defense, one that is tough on the perimeter and in the paint. Maryland produces a significant turnover advantage, forcing miscues on 20.2 percent of opponents’ possessions while coughing it up only 14.5 percent of the time. And our model loves their difference in pace between offense and defense, which tells a deeper story. The Terps’ average possession length on offense is 16.1 seconds, which is 29th in the nation. On defense, it drops to 18 seconds (261st). What does that mean? Teams generally get better shots early in the shot clock, so Maryland is creating them on offense and preventing them on defense. That’s a sign of a good team. Add in Derik Queen’s star turn (eight double-doubles in his past 10 games), and Maryland is a rough matchup for Grand Canyon.
No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 14 UNC Wilmington Seahawks
Upset Chance: 8.3 percent
At first blush, the Seahawks look like a live dog. They are a strong rebounding team, particularly on offense, where they grab 35.5 percent of their own misses. They play slowly, which Slingshot says is the preferred method for underdogs. And with 7-foot, 280-pound center Harlan Obioha in the middle, they certainly don’t lack size.
But look closer, and you’ll see they don’t have the perimeter tools to truly scare Texas Tech. They are below-average 3-point shooters in both accuracy (33 percent) and volume (36 percent of attempts). And they only force turnovers on 17.4 percent of opponents’ possessions.
That’s not enough to stop the country’s sixth-ranked offense. JT Toppin (18.1 ppg, 9.2 rpg) can dominate at the rim, while Chance McMillian and Christian Anderson can fill it up from outside. Forward Darrion Williams (14.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 3.7 apg) adds a little bit of everything, and the Red Raiders maximize possessions by taking care of the ball and crashing the offensive glass. Yes, they lost to three teams ranked 68th or worse at KenPom.com (UCF, St. Joseph’s, TCU), but they shouldn’t have too much trouble getting by the Seahawks.
No. 2 St. John’s Red Storm vs. No. 15 Omaha Mavericks
Upset Chance: 5.9 percent
Kudos to the Mavs, champions of the Summit League, on their first NCAA tournament appearance since joining Division I. It’s likely to be a brief stay, though. They’re one of the worst teams in the country at forcing turnovers, and they rank just 205th in offensive rebounding (29.2 percent). As you should know by now, those are two of the most important rocks that a successful David has in its slingshot.
Those deficiencies will be even more pronounced against St. John’s, which happens to excel in both categories (9th in offensive rebounding, 13th in forcing turnovers). The Johnnies are an inconsistent shooting team, and that could cost them at some point. But their toughness on defense and relentless work on the boards should overwhelm Omaha, regardless of how poorly the Red Storm shoot from deep.
No. 1 Florida Gators vs. No. 16 Norfolk State Spartans
Upset Chance: 4.2 percent
If you’re spending more than a fraction of a second pondering this game in your bracket, you’re probably in big trouble. Florida isn’t just a great team (first at KenPom in adjusted offensive efficiency; 10th on defense) — it’s also a great giant. The Gators grab 38 percent of their own missed shots, which insulates them against a cold shooting night. It’ll take a lot more than Brian Moore Jr. (18.4 ppg) to topple such a well-rounded team.
(Photo of Nique Clifford: David Becker / Getty Images; Illustration: Will Tullos, The Athletic)
