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After a historic start to the 2025 NBA playoffs, the No. 1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder will try to sweep the 8-seed Memphis Grizzlies on Saturday. OKC first made history with a plus-70 point differential through the first two games of this series, the second-largest in NBA history. The Thunder went up 3-0 by overcoming a 29-point deficit in Game 3, also the second-biggest in postseason history. Much of Oklahoma City’s Game 3 rally came after Memphis’ Ja Morant (hip) exited the game after suffering a brutal fall, and the Grizzlies’ star is doubtful to suit up in Game 4.
Tipoff is at 3:30 p.m. ET from the FedExForum in Memphis. Oklahoma City is a 15-point favorite in the latest Grizzlies vs. Thunder odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 222.5. Before locking in any Thunder vs. Grizzlies picks, be sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters the first full week of the 2025 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 156-116 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $4,000. It is also 22-11 (67%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Now, here are the model’s three best bets for Grizzlies vs. Thunder on Saturday:
Grizzlies (+15) to cover the spread (-110 at FanDuel)
OKC’s margin of victory has gone from plus-51 (Game 1) to plus-19 (Game 2) to plus-six (Game 3), so Memphis has clearly identified ways in which to be more competitive. The Grizzlies dominated Game 3, for the most part, as the final 1:20 of the game was the only time that Oklahoma City led. Memphis did end up covering in Game 3, and the team has now covered in three straight home games. Scotty Pippen Jr. showed that he can handle a bigger workload in Game 3 as he notched a postseason career-high of 28 points, and the Thunder have covered in just two of six road games this year when favored by 13-plus points. Memphis is projected to cover in 60% of simulations, with -110 odds coming at FanDuel.
Bonus pick time: Top NBA expert Mike Barner is heating up! Get his best bets for Saturday here, all from the expert who is 144-97 on his last 241 NBA prop picks (+2988).
Under 222.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
The Under has hit in every game in this series, with at least 8 points to spare in each. Over these teams’ seven matchups in the regular plus postseason, the Under is 6-1. Favoring the Under goes back even further than that, however, as the Under is 11-2 over the last 13 Thunder vs. Grizzlies matchups. Both teams are shooting below their regular-season averages in both FG percentage and 3P percentage, which is often the case when teams turn up their defensive intensity in the postseason. The model projects both teams to score at least six points below their season averages as the Under hits over 60% of the time.
Bonus pick: You’ve seen the best bets for Grizzlies vs. Thunder on Saturday. Now, get picks for every game from the model that enters the NBA postseason on a 156-116 run on top-rated NBA picks.
Jalen Williams under 22.5 points (-125 at DraftKings)
Williams averaged just under this at 21.6 points in the regular season, but Memphis has a top 10 defensive rating, and just three teams allowed a lower FG percentage in the regular season. Since making his postseason debut a year ago, Williams has gone under 22.5 points in 10 of 13 playoff games. He also isn’t quite as efficient with his shot on the road, as he’s connecting on 46.4% of FG attempts in away arenas, compared to 50.4% at home this season. The SportsLine Projection Model has Williams forecasted to finished with 20.4 points in Game 4.
