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Giants starter Robbie Ray can become just the second four-game winner in the majors this season when he takes the mound against the Milwaukee Brewers on Monday at Oracle Park in San Francisco. The Giants have won each of the four games this season started by Ray (3-0, 4.19 ERA), who is coming off a no-decision against the Phillies. On Monday, he will square off against the Brewers’ Quinn Priester (1-0, 0.90).
For the San Francisco-Milwaukee matchup, sportsbooks have set Ray’s total strikeout player prop at 5.5 and Priester’s at 3.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Priester Over 3.5 as a 4-star play and one of the three top pitcher strikeout props for Monday. Meanwhile, the model rates Ray Under 5.5 as a 3.5-star play.
In addition to the Priester prop, the model has found even better value on Monday’s eight-game MLB schedule, with two pitcher strikeout props rated at 4.5 stars. Here they are:
Aaron Nola Over 5.5 strikeouts (-139) vs. Mets (7:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 6.3 strikeouts
The Phillies’ Nola (0-4, 6.65) has gotten off to a slow start this season and is coming off his worst start: six earned runs in 5.1 innings. But despite his struggles, he has still shown swing-and-miss stuff, striking out 25 batters in 21.2 innings. He has gone Over 5.5 strikeouts in three of four starts this season. In addition, Nola has had success against the Mets over his career, striking out 205 batters in 164.0 innings.
Kevin Gausman Over 4.5 strikeouts (-140) vs. Astros (8:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.8 strikeouts
The Blue Jays‘ Gausman (2-1, 2.49) enters Monday’s matchup against Houston on a roll. Over his last two starts, he has given up just two earned runs and struck out 16 batters while walking none in 14.0 innings. He also has baffled Astros batters over his career, with 54 strikeouts in 41.1 innings. The last time he faced Houston, he struck out 13 batters in 7.0 innings. In Sunday’s loss to the Padres, the Astros struck out 11 times.
Quinn Priester Over 3.5 strikeouts (+108) vs. Giants (9:45 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 3.9 strikeouts
Acquired in an offseason trade from the Red Sox, Priester (1-0, 0.90) has been excellent so far this season with the Brewers. He has given up only one run in 10.0 innings while striking out eight batters. He went Over 3.5 strikeouts in both of those starts. On Monday, he faces a San Francisco club that already has struck out 206 times this season; just three teams have struck out more.
