SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) is scheduled to release its earnings report on Tuesday, April 29, 2025. Historical data from the past five years indicates that SoFi stock has shown positive one-day returns following earnings announcements in 67% of instances. These positive returns have had a median of 8.9% and a maximum of 28.4%. These figures highlight the significant volatility often seen in SoFi’s stock price around its earnings releases. 

Analysts’ consensus estimates for the upcoming report project earnings of $0.03 per share on revenue of $739 million. This represents a substantial 27% increase in revenue compared to the same period last year, when SoFi reported earnings per share of $0.03 on revenue of $581 million. This strong anticipated top-line growth is likely to be driven by higher fee-based revenues, supported by the continued expansion of its total member base, which reached 10.1 million in the previous quarter.

For event-driven traders, understanding SoFi’s historical stock performance after earnings announcements can be advantageous. While the immediate market reaction will depend on how the actual results and future outlook compare to consensus estimates and investor expectations, analyzing historical patterns offers potential trading strategies:

1. Pre-Earnings Positioning: By understanding the historical probability of positive one-day returns and the potential magnitude of those returns, traders can strategically position themselves before the earnings release.
2. Post-Earnings Trading: Examining the correlation between the initial stock reaction and medium-term returns following earnings can inform trading decisions made after the announcement.

That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

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SoFi Technologies’ Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 15 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 5 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 67% of the time.
• The percentage remains the same at 67% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 10 positive returns = 8.9%, and median of the 5 negative returns = -10%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

SOFI 1D, 5D, & 21D Post-Earnings Return

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

SOFI Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of SoFi Technologies stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before SoFi Technologies. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

SOFI Correlation With Peer Earnings

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.