Winners and losers from Nico Iamaleava saga: QB overplays his hand, UCLA makes a splash, Tennessee will be OK

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The Nico Iamaleava saga officially ended last weekend after the former Tennessee star announced he is transferring to UCLA. Less than 24 hours after news broke of his commitment, UCLA quarterback Joey Aguilar entered the transfer portal and committed to Tennessee, creating an “unofficial trade” and quarterback swap for the 2025 season.

He won’t be the only member of his family playing for the Bruins this fall. His younger brother, Madden Iamaleava, is transferring from Arkansas to UCLA. The younger Iamaleava committed to UCLA out of high school before flipping his commitment during the Early Signing Period in December to Arkansas.

The Iamaleava brothers are from Southern California and will return home to help turn around a program that went just 5-7 in Year 1 as a member of the Big Ten.

Joey Aguilar to enter transfer portal: Why ‘QB trade’ with Nico Iamaleava may work out perfectly for Tennessee

So, how did we get here? Tennessee moved on from Iamaleava ahead of its April 13 spring game and the opening of the spring portal window, which ended a high-stakes standoff over NIL contract negotiations. UCLA was viewed as the favorite to land Iamaleava, and the transfer came together just over a week after his exit from Knoxville.

Now that the dust has settled on one of the wildest storylines of the college football offseason, here are the biggest winners and losers from a dramatic series of events.

Winner: UCLA makes a splash

The biggest winner of this situation is UCLA. The Bruins landed a high-profile quarterback who unexpectedly became available via the transfer portal. Public perception of Iamaleava has dipped after what can be described as a train wreck of affairs, but he’s the former No. 2 recruit in his class and now ranks as the No. 1 transfer, per 247Sports. He can raise the ceiling of this UCLA team. His addition is the exact kind of splash DeShaun Foster needed to make heading into Year 2 of his tenure. 

The Bruins ranked 15th in yards per game (328.8) and No. 16 in points per game (18.4) among all Big Ten teams last season. UCLA brought in Tino Sunseri from Indiana to serve as its offensive coordinator. The 36-year-old rising star in the coaching world spent last season as Indiana’s co-offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach and played a key role in the development of Kurtis Rourke. Indiana finished No. 1 in scoring offense (41.3 points per game) and fourth in yards (426.4) among all Big Ten teams last season.

Nico Iamaleava to UCLA: Big Ten QB outlook in 2025 season as Bruins join short list of teams with stability

Despite the Tennessee baggage, players like Iamaleava don’t grow on trees. He was one of the top recruits coming out of Southern California in 2023, and the upside is still there for him to be an elite quarterback at this level. UCLA had to make this move. It’s worth the risk.

Loser: Iamaleava overplays his hand in the transfer portal

Iamaleava’s high-profile exit from Tennessee will be something to look back on years from now. Iamaleava sought a new deal from Tennessee worth $4 million annually, nearly double his original reported deal, per ESPN’s Chris Low.Iamaleava’s lucrative first deal represented a high-water mark in the early NIL era in college athletics, and his standoff over more money was a somewhat fitting, if not ironic, way for the two sides to part ways.

Iamaleava is expected to earn significantly less money this season than he initially anticipated. Let’s say his new deal is for $1.5 million (call it an educated guess): That’s worth about half of what it is in Los Angeles compared to how far the money would travel in Tennessee. California has the highest state income tax in the country and Iamaleava, should he earn more than $1 million, would be taxed 13.3% of it — which means roughly $180,000-$200,000 out of his pocket. There is no state income tax in Tennessee. 

Winner: Tennessee works fast to find Iamaleava’s replacement

Just over a week after Iamaleava’s exit from Tennessee, coach Josh Heupel found his potential QB1 for the 2025 season in Aguilar. The Northern California native, who started his college career at the junior college level at Diablo Valley College, threw for 3,003 yards and 23 touchdowns last season for App State. He was the 2023 Sun Belt Newcomer of the Year after throwing for 3,757 yards and 33 touchdowns.

A de facto trade between Tennessee and UCLA (by way of App State).  CBS Sports

Aguilar has also shown an ability to be a threat with his legs. He ran for 207 yards and two touchdowns during the 2024 campaign.

Aguilar is used to making quick reads within the offense, which Iamaleava struggled with during his first season as a starter. He knows when to make a quick decision and when to take a shot down the field — though he does have a reckless streak, as evidenced by his 14 interceptions in 2024 and 10 in 2023. 

Aguilar’s fit with Heupel’s offense should be seamless. On short notice, Tennessee made magic happen.

Loser: Arkansas’ depth takes a hit after younger Iamaleava leaves

Arkansas is an unexpected loser of this wild situation. The Razorbacks lost their highest-ranked quarterback signee from the 2025 recruiting class, which is a hit to the program’s depth at the position. As 247Sports reported, Iamaleava had been moving up the depth chart since his arrival in Fayetteville. He was in a potential quarterback battle with KJ Jackson for the backup job behind starter Taylen Green.

“Madden’s a special talent,” Arkansas offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino said earlier this month.

With the younger Iamaleava off to UCLA, he will compete for a backup quarterback job again. The older Iamaleava will enter fall camp as the odds-on favorite to win the starting job, but after that, the depth chart should be wide open.

UCLA’s quarterback room has been overhauled Chip Kelly’s final season in 2023. UCLA’s QB room now includes the Iamaleava brothers, former Washington quarterback Dermaricus Davis and Henry Hasselbeck, the son of former NFL star Matt Hasselbeck.

Winner: Tennessee’s Jake Merklinger could get chance to shine

Even with Aguilar coming in via the transfer portal, there is no guarantee the UCLA transfer will win the starting job. One name to keep an eye on heading into fall camp will be Merklinger, a former top-250 recruit from the 2024 recruiting cycle. Merklinger committed to Tennessee out of high school over Arkansas, Auburn and Boston College.

He made two appearances during the 2024 season. Merklinger completed 6 of 9 attempts for 48 yards combined against Kent State and Chattanooga.

Tennessee also has another four-star quarterback coming into the program in George MacIntyre, who ranked as the 17th overall quarterback in his recruiting class, per 247Sports. Merklinger has, at minimum, a chance of winning the backup job. With Iamaleava leaving, the door is open for someone like Merklinger to make an impact.

Loser: Oddsmakers are lower on Tennessee after Iamaleava’s exit

The impact of Iamaleava’s transfer has had a ripple effect on the rest of the college football universe. Tennessee, which at +700 was ranked as the fourth-most likely team to win the SEC championship, has since dropped to +1500 following the departure of Iamaleava, according to FanDuel Sportsbook

How Nico Iamaleava’s transfer from Tennessee to UCLA flips teams’ odds to win SEC, Big Ten championships

Iamaleava’s official departure pushes the Vols to seventh on the oddsboard behind Ole Miss, Texas A&M and LSU. Tennessee’s projected win total also dropped from 9.5 to 8.5 after news of Iamaleava’s transfer to UCLA broke.

UCLA opens the season with a home date against former Pac-12 foe Utah. Tennessee plays Syracuse in Atlanta. 

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