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The Toronto Blue Jays have agreed to terms with first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on a 14-year extension worth $500 million. Guerrero, 26, had been slated to hit free agency after this season. Instead, it appears he’ll remain in Toronto for the foreseeable future — and, presumably, for the rest of his playing career — on what amounts to the second-largest contract in MLB history.
Whenever a deal of this magnitude goes down, we here at CBS Sports like to survey the land by deeming some actors or concepts winners and some losers. You know where this is headed, so let’s just skip to the point by confirming that we’re highlighting a few of each in the space below.
Winner: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
This is self-evident, right?
You’re an automatic winner in our book if you can sign for half a billion dollars without having to submit a change of address form. Heck, we would deign ourselves and include Guerrero as a winner even if he did have to fill out some paperwork.
Guerrero now has the opportunity to cement himself as one of the best players in Blue Jays history by taking a sledgehammer to the club’s record books. He already ranks 16th in Wins Above Replacement, and he should be within striking distance of the top 10 by the end of the year. Additionally, he’s only 44 home runs away from cracking the top five, and 177 away from taking over the top spot.
Given Guerrero’s offensive capabilities and the amount of time he has left with the organization, it seems safe to assume that he’s going to hold a lot of Blue Jays records by the team he’s done. The money is the main selling point here, but becoming synonymous with a franchise is cool, too.
Loser: Flashy offseasons
If you love offseasons fronted by an elite free agent, then here’s hoping you got your fill the past few winters. That’s because there isn’t going to be an equivalent to Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, or Juan Soto anytime soon — especially not now that Guerrero has been removed from consideration.
Add in the wave of other recent extensions (including the one signed by San Diego Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill), and there’s a real chance MLB will be without a clearcut premier free agent until possibly winter 2028, when Baltimore Orioles infielder Gunnar Henderson would qualify.
We’ll add two caveats here before anyone yells at us: 1) it’s certainly possible that Henderson himself never hits free agency and instead takes some of new owner David Rubenstein’s money; and 2) baseball is an unpredictable sport and some player could emerge between then and now who renders this an incorrect assertion.
From where we’re sitting, though? The next few winters aren’t going to be as fun as the last couple.
Winner: Kyle Tucker
With Guerrero spoken for, Chicago Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker is the odds-on favorite to enter the offseason viewed as the top available free agent. That sets the stage for an intriguing case study.
As we wrote entering the season, Tucker is one of the dozen or so best players going. What will make his free agency interesting — provided that he does hit the open market and doesn’t first agree to a long-term extension of his own — is how teams receive the shape of his game. His strengths aren’t concentrated in a manner that results in him sitting atop leaderboards; rather, he does everything well and that combination makes him a highly productive player. Will teams value his output the same way they would if he had a few more dominant traits? We’ll find out.
If nothing else, Tucker should benefit from the new perception that he’s the top player available.
Winner: First basemen
It hasn’t been a fun few years for first basemen. At one point this offseason, it appeared that MLB front offices now viewed the position the same fungible way their NFL counterparts approach running backs. Here, in the form of Guerrero’s extension, is a glimmer of hope for a brighter tomorrow.
Indeed, this is evidence that, even in this day and age where teams place an emphasis on positional and defensive value, first basemen too can sign a highly lucrative contract to serve as the face of a franchise. Provided, anyway, they were born in the right country to the right father and that they develop into hitters worthy of comparisons to future Hall of Fame first basemen.
Maybe it’s best if we don’t give that too much thought.
Loser: The Blue Jays
You can argue that the Blue Jays are a winner given that they finally convinced a top talent to take their money. You can also argue that Guerrero Jr. offers more intrinsic value to the Blue Jays than any other franchise, and that it’s important to not view this contract from only an on-field perspective. Yet people we talked to from other front offices weren’t sure the Blue Jays should have done this deal.
The argument put forth by those sources is straightforward: it’s hard to see the Blue Jays breaking even or coming out ahead on this contract in on-field value. Guerrero is a great hitter, but, again, he’s a right-right first baseman who offers minimal defensive, positional, or baserunning value. If Guerrero declines a little earlier or more rapidly than expected … well, the name “Albert Pujols” popped up a few times.
Again, there’s a compelling case to be made in Toronto’s favor. It all boils down to how you view these things and what you value. But in the eyes of other decision makers, the Blue Jays already appear to be underwater on the Guerrero extension.
