The Vladimir Guerrero Jr. saga was always going to end one of two ways.
In one version of the ending, Guerrero leaves, either via trade at this year’s deadline or by signing with another team in free agency. The other version of the ending was the storybook alternative, in which the homegrown prospect-turned-star stays for the next decade-plus in the city that he helped bring back to baseball relevance.
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Given the way the past few seasons have gone — and the two sides’ failure to get an extension done during the offseason — the former was looking like the far more likely outcome. Because while this team has had plenty of hype since 2020, Toronto has disappointed over the past five years, including three first-round playoff exits via sweep and missing the postseason twice. Even worse than their on-field record, as the years have gone by, the Blue Jays have tried and failed to sign marquee free agents, including Shohei Ohtani, Roki Sasai and Juan Soto. Meanwhile, the clock has been ticking on their window to contend with shortstop Bo Bichette and, more importantly, first baseman Guerrero.
But on Sunday, the Blue Jays accomplished what many in the industry had begun to think was impossible, signing their homegrown, 26-year-old superstar to a 14-year, $500 million extension that will likely keep Guerrero in a Blue Jays uniform for the rest of his career.
At a time in baseball when many teams have decided to sit on their hands or let paying homegrown stars be someone else’s prerogative, the Blue Jays deserve a lot of credit for making this extension happen.
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After failing to reel in the biggest fish in Ohtani two offseasons ago and Soto this past winter, there was no way that Toronto could say they were all-in on winning as an organization while letting their four-time All-Star walk out the door. And after seeing how Toronto’s front office wined and dined some of baseball’s biggest stars, there’s no question that Guerrero wanted to feel wanted, reportedly turning down a $500 million offer with deferrals earlier this spring.
Guerrero’s self-imposed spring training extension deadline and his openness with the media about his desire to stay in Toronto put all the pressure on Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins. The star created a sense of urgency not only to get an extension done but also to prevent a potential dark cloud from looming over the entire season. In signing Guerrero to a $500 million deal with no deferrals — the second-largest contract in MLB history in terms of present-day value, after Soto’s $765 million — the Blue Jays put their money where their mouth is when it comes to their desire to win.
With that, Guerrero’s extension begins a new chapter in Toronto. The team’s window was swiftly closing, expedited by the pending free agencies of Guerrero and Bichette. But with Guerrero secured for the long haul, the Jays propped their window back open as they try to build around their superstar first baseman over the duration of this deal.
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The team already added some reinforcements this past winter, signing outfielder Anthony Santander to a five-year, $92.5 million free-agent contract and signing backstop Alejandro Kirk to a five-year, $58 million extension. The Blue Jays currently have the fifth-highest payroll in baseball, at $243.3 million, but over the next two years, with the contracts of Bichette, George Springer, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer and Kevin Gausman expiring, they have significant money coming off the books.
They’ll need to rebuild their starting rotation in the near future, but the Blue Jays should have the resources to augment their roster and stay afloat in a competitive American League East with the centerpiece of their lineup in place long-term.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be in Toronto for the remainder of his MLB career.
(Grant Thomas/Yahoo Sports)
Bigger picture, Vladdy’s new deal doesn’t affect only the Blue Jays; it will have a ripple effect through the rest of baseball. Guerrero was set to be the top free agent available this coming winter. That title now shifts to Cubs right fielder Kyle Tucker, who barring an extension of his own will be a free agent at season’s end. Tucker, 28, is two years older than Guerrero, but this deal still sets the market for what Tucker could receive.
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At the same time, Guerrero’s contract is one of the first of this magnitude, along with Soto’s, that does not include deferred money. The topic of deferrals has become a point of contention thanks to the Dodgers’ recent deferral-fueled spending, specifically deferring $680 million of Ohtani’s $700 million until after his deal is up. With some players and teams having strong feelings about this organizational strategy, deferrals are very likely to be addressed in the next collective bargaining agreement between MLB and the MLBPA.
In the end, Guerrero and the Blue Jays were always going to be better together than they would’ve been apart, but history has shown that doesn’t always mean it happens that way. Thankfully, in this instance, Vladdy asked the organization to step up and make him a priority, and Toronto didn’t hide behind front-office politics or competitive-balance-tax implications.
No, the Blue Jays put their heads down and got the extension done. In doing so, they’ve given their organization new life for the next decade. Good on them.
