The pressure is on for Marcus Stroman. The New York Yankees have him under a lens as they wait for healthier pitching options and it’s his time to prove himself as the Bronx Bombers aim to take the series over the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Chris Hatfield • Betting Analyst
Apr 5, 2025 • 12:09 ET • 4 min read
The New York Yankees and Pittsburgh Pirates continue a three-game series this afternoon in the Bronx.
The Bronx Bombers lived up to their namesake last night with a 9-4 win, striking early and often. The win gave the Yankees two in a row after a slump in the series against the Arizona Diamondbacks. For Pittsburgh, it continued the story of the Pirates season so far: a rough start.
The Pirates have just one win in their last six games. While we don’t see that changing in this matchup, there is better value in the prop market.
My Yankees vs. Pirates predictions break it all down here as I bring you my MLB picks for the two teams’ meeting on Saturday, April 5th.
Yankees vs Pirates prediction
My Yankees vs Pirates best bet: Marcus Stroman Over 3.5 strikeouts (-129 at Caesars)
Marcus Stroman isn’t a strikeout pitcher, but that doesn’t mean he can’t exceed a small strikeout number. That’s precisely what I expect to happen this afternoon, too. I made this number 4.4 and see it as some of the best value on the board in this matchup.
The situational analysis of this matchup is critical.
There is real pressure on Marcus Stroman not only to play well this season, but to play well in this game. The New York Yankees have other options to replace him in the rotation once it’s fully healthy. His opening start of the season, which saw him allow three earned runs to a pretty poor offense in the Milwaukee Brewers, didn’t inspire much confidence. But that’s precisely why I like him to bounce back in this spot. He did it so often last season and has a good opportunity to do it against an offense that has struggled out of the gate.
There are a few things I like about this matchup for Stroman. The Pittsburgh Pirates are averaging double-digit strikeouts over the last three games is undoubtedly one of those things. There’s been little sign that they’ll either snap out of it. Outside of that, the pitch mix they’ll see most of us in isn’t ideal.
Depending on the lineup the Pirates roll out today, it could have up to five players with a strikeout rate in the top 20% of baseball against the slurve. Not only is that a pitch that Stroman has relied on the second most over the last two years, but it’s also a pitch that has produced a 40% whiff rate for the veteran righty. Things don’t improve much when you look at what Pirates hitters have done against offspeed pitches, and that’s the concern.
I’ll buy low on Stroman in this spot, where he needs to have a strong start and sees a team with a subpar track record against offspeed pitches.
Yankees vs Pirates same-game parlay (SGP)
Marcus Stroman Over 3.5 strikeouts
Jazz Chisholm RBI
Andrew McCutchen Over 0.5 bases
I’m even more interested in his props today after a terrible day at the plate yesterday for Jazz Chisholm.
I’ll again target an RBI number that hasn’t been priced accurately. It’s a product of him being in the four-hole behind some very hot hitters with a good matchup. I’ll likely back this anytime the Yankees face a pitcher with a hard-hit issue, and that’s certainly the case for Bailey Falter.
I wrapped up my same-game parlay with Andrew McCutchen to go over his base total. -186 felt like a pretty discounted price for the Pirate player who led the team in hard-hit rate against the sinker and slurve last season – the top two pitches for Stroman.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Pirates odds
Yankees vs Pirates live odds
Yankees vs Pirates opening odds
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh +125 | New York -150
- Run line: Pittsburgh +1.5 (-138) | New York -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Yankees vs Pirates trend
The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 127 games (+16.45 Units / 12% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Pirates.
How to watch Yankees vs Pirates and game info
Location PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA Date Saturday, 4-5-2025 First pitch 4:05 p.m. ET TV YES, SNP Yankees starting pitcher Marcus Stroman
(0-0, 5.79 ERA) Pirates starting pitcher Bailey Falter
(0-0, 3.00 ERA)
Yankees vs Pirates latest injuries
Yankees vs Pirates weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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