The Detroit Tigers host the San Diego Padres on Tuesday, April 22. First pitch from Comerica Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FanDuel Sports Detroit and Padres TV.
The Tigers go for the series win over a banged-up Padres team on Tuesday afternoon with Jack Flaherty on the hill.
Find my Padres vs Tigers prediction below.
Tap Here to Bet NowSan Diego Padres vs Detroit Tigers Prediction, Picks
- Padres vs Tigers picks: Padres ML (-105 · Play to -115)
My Padres vs Tigers best bet is Padres ML. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Tigers Odds, Spread, Line
Tuesday, April 22
6:40 p.m. ET
MLB.TV
Padres OddsSpreadTotalMoneyline+1.5
-210
7.5
+100o / -120u
+115
Tigers OddsSpreadTotalMoneyline-1.5
+175
7.5
+100o / -120u
-135
Padres vs Tigers Projected Pitchers
RHP Nick Pivetta (SD)StatRHP Jack Flaherty (DET)3-1W-L1-10.9fWAR (FanGraphs)0.41.57 / 2.62ERA /xERA2.53 / 4.282.16 / 3.10FIP / xFIP3.31 / 3.580.83WHIP1.0822.1%K-BB%18.4%38.6%GB%40.4%97Stuff+98111Location+99
Padres vs Tigers MLB Betting Preview
Padres Betting Preview: Good Matchup for San Diego
Right-hander Nick Pivetta takes the mound for the Padres in this matchup, and he should serve as a strong candidate to back. Pivetta has been sensational this season, posting a 3-1 record with a 1.57 ERA and 0.83 WHIP through four starts.
His underlying metrics are equally impressive. Entering this contest, the right-hander ranks in the top quarter of the league in expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA), strikeout rate and hard-hit rate.
That success is likely to continue against the Tigers, a team against which Pivetta owns a 3.15 ERA over four career meetings.
Following Pivetta is perhaps the strongest bullpen in baseball. This season, San Diego’s relief staff ranks first in ERA, third in fielding independent pitching (FIP), ninth in expected FIP (xFIP) and third in wins above replacement (WAR).
This pitching staff should also receive plenty of run support, considering that the Padres rank in the top 10 in hits per game, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS.
Tigers Betting Preview: Regression Coming?
On the other hand, Detroit ranks outside the top 10 in each of those five hitting categories. Furthermore, the Tigers have struggled against Pivetta.
Through 58 combined career plate appearances against the right-hander, the current Detroit roster owns a .213 xBA.
Meanwhile, right-hander Jack Flaherty gets the ball for the Tigers. Like Pivetta, Flaherty has posted some strong surface-level results this season.
However, the difference between the two pitchers is that Flaherty’s analytics suggest regression is looming. This season, he ranks in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, walk rate and barrel rate.
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Padres vs Tigers Picks, Best Bet
Not only does San Diego hold the edge in hitting and starting pitching, but it also boasts the bullpen advantage. Entering this matchup, the Padres’ relief staff outranks the Tigers’ in ERA, FIP, xFIP and WAR.
The likely reason Detroit is slightly favored is that the game will be played at Comerica Park, where the Tigers are 9-2 this season.
That said, I’ll gladly take the team with the stronger hitting and pitching at -108.
Pick: Padres ML (-105 · Play to -115)
Moneyline
As mentioned, I’m betting Padres moneyline at -105.
My Pick: Padres Moneyline (-105)
Run Line (Spread)
I like San Diego to cover, but find more value in just taking the outright number.
Over/Under
I lean toward the Over, but don’t want to fade Pivetta against Detroit.
Padres vs Tigers Betting Trends to Watch
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